'From 95% to Zero': US export controls have wiped out Nvidia’s China market share

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has publicly disclosed the devastating commercial impact of U.S. export controls on the company's advanced chip business in China, stating that Nvidia’s market share in the country’s high-performance AI sector has plummeted from nearly 95% to zero.

Speaking at a recent Citadel Securities event in New York, Huang was unsparing in his critique of the policy, calling the outcome a "mistake" that harms American interests by effectively ceding a massive market to domestic rivals.

“At the moment, we are 100% out of China. We went from 95% market share to 0%. I can’t imagine any policymaker thinking that’s a good idea—that whatever policy we implemented caused America to lose one of the largest markets in the world to zero,” Huang said.

The collapse of a $25 billion market

The collapse in market share is a direct result of export restrictions, which began in 2022 and have since tightened, barring Nvidia from selling its most powerful AI accelerators, including the A100 and H100 models, to Chinese firms.

China previously accounted for an estimated 20% to 25% of Nvidia's data center revenue, a market Huang estimates could grow to $50 billion in the coming years.

The situation has worsened recently, with Chinese authorities reportedly advising domestic firms to avoid using Nvidia's newer, less-powerful chips (like the H20), which were specifically designed to comply with earlier export rules.

Huawei rises to the challenge

Huang warned that excluding Nvidia from China risks handing the market to domestic competitors like Huawei Technologies, which has accelerated its own AI chip roadmap and has the full backing of the Chinese government.

Huang further argued that the restrictions are counterproductive, noting that China is home to roughly 50% of the world's AI researchers. "It's a mistake not to have those researchers build AI on American technology," he said.

Nvidia’s response and outlook

Huang confirmed that Nvidia's financial forecasts now assume zero revenue from the Chinese market in its advanced chip division, although the company continues to hope for a policy change.